What do you think of the GDP and PCE data today at 20:30 Beijing time? Let's first look at the relationship between the results: PCE cooling and weak GDP: The decline in US bond yields is favorable for gold and BTC to face upward pressure. PCE tends to be hot, GDP is resilient: expectations of interest rate hikes and rising yields can easily penetrate the lower edge of the range. Weak GDP but hot PCE: stagflation combination, least friendly to risk assets. This is an extremely rare case of data matching - the initial Q2 GDP and June core PCE landed in the same window, and happened to be stuck after yesterday's decision by Walsh to maintain the 3.5% -3.75% interest rate unchanged. The core game point of this set of data lies in the confirmation of the epitome of stagflation. The biggest expected difference in the market currently lies in economic growth: the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model has plummeted from 4.3% in May to the current 1.5%, far below Wall Street's consensus expectation of 2.3%. On the other hand, after the core PCE hit a three-year high of 3.4% in May, market expectations tonight are only expected to slightly drop to around 3.3%. If tonight's offer is a combination of "low GDP (such as falling below 2%)+sticky PCE (flat or above 3.3%)", it means that the Federal Reserve will be in a deadlock - Walsh cannot continue to raise interest rates before the economic cliff, but also cannot release the room for interest rate cuts before the core inflation of 3.3%. What does this guidance mean for transactions Gold: The stagflation combination is an absolute bullish catalyst for gold. As long as GDP visibly stalls, the market will firmly believe that the Federal Reserve must ultimately compromise with the economy. Economic weakness will suppress nominal interest rates, while inflation remains high, and real interest rates will passively decline, which will give gold strong upward momentum. Cryptocurrency assets: For liquid assets, this is a dilemma. Low GDP will prompt the market to bet on long-term liquidity, but high PCE will immediately suppress recent risk appetite. Tonight is more likely to be the first opportunity for a downward clearing of bullish liquidity. At present, BTC is fluctuating around 64000 yuan. If there is no PCE that is extremely lower than expected (such as falling directly to around 3.1%) to completely open up the space for interest rate cuts, it is difficult to form a unilateral upward trend and is likely to become a wide range monkey market. US shares Bad news is no longer good news here. At present, the market still maintains a growth expectation of over 20% for Q2 profits of the US stock market. If the macro GDP is first falsified (close to 1.5%), under the extremely high forward P/E ratio, the denominator end will be locked by PCE, and the numerator end will face a downward adjustment. The US stock market will inevitably face a bull run. Core: Don't just look at any one data tonight, you must look at the combination difference between the two. If at the moment of data release, it is found that GDP falls short of expectations but PCE exceeds expectations, it is the most logical action to directly invest in gold; Under this script, the Nasdaq and encrypted multiple orders need to immediately shrink their open defense.