Yesterday, the Fed didn’t raise interest rates, keeping them steady at 3.75%, in line with market expectations. The next meeting is scheduled for September 16, and the market currently estimates a 53% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The ongoing escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict is driving oil prices higher, reigniting inflationary pressures, making it even harder for the Fed to consider rate cuts. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken above 5.20%, signaling market concerns about persistent inflation and rising long-term funding costs, further suppressing risk assets. So, this pause in rate hikes is just a temporary reprieve from one wave of shocks. The crypto market is still far from seeing a full-blown rally. The real turning point will come when inflation drops, U.S. Treasury yields fall, or rate hike expectations cool significantly.