No rate hike in July. No face-slapping moment, but what I’m more interested in this morning is oil prices. So far, Trump hasn’t taken further retaliatory actions, and WTI is still below 84. As for Walsh’s speech, it’s still emphasizing reducing forward guidance, reinforcing the 2% inflation target, and continuing to monitor data. Overall, the impact on the market isn’t that significant. U.S. stocks and Bitcoin have weathered it, so now it’s back to focusing on earnings reports. But the lack of a rate hike in July has only brought a slight rebound to the market, and there might still be a pullback later. A few days ago, I mentioned playing Bitcoin’s price swings. From around 63 to a peak near 645, that’s roughly a 3% move. If Bitcoin doesn’t seem appealing, look at Ethereum—it went from 1,856 to around 1,920, also a 3% gain. Don’t underestimate these moves. After all, it’s a bear market. Even a few percentage points can cover living expenses. Say you’re trading with $5,000—3% is $150, and that’s just in two or three days, right? #Bitcoin #ETH I’m still holding my oil positions, which is why I checked oil prices first thing this morning. I’m worried that after the rate meeting, there might be further pressure pushing oil prices higher. The no-rate-hike decision for July was somewhat expected. Next up is the September rate meeting. Currently, CME predicts a 65% chance of a rate hike in September. Keeping an eye on oil prices and data is key. For most of July, oil prices stayed below 90 WTI. When July’s CPI data is released in August, it shouldn’t look too bad. The focus will shift to August’s data, which means watching oil price trends in August. Risk markets will continue to be weighed down by concerns over the September rate hike expectations, which explains why there might be a pullback after the rebound. But there’s no need to panic—it’s all part of the game, and there’s still time. The same pattern applies: U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate → oil prices rise → inflation expectations increase → rate hike pressure → risk markets under pressure (Geopolitical tensions ease → oil prices drop → inflation expectations decrease → rates stay unchanged or rate cut expectations rise → risk markets get a boost) Let’s just say, as we get closer to the midterm elections, time is running out for Trump.