The Fed didn’t surprise the market last night. But the real takeaway isn’t “no rate cuts,” it’s this: the era of high interest rates isn’t over yet, and the market needs to lower its expectations for liquidity easing. This time, the Fed decided to hold steady, keeping rates at 3.5%-3.75%. On the surface, this aligns with expectations, but what the market truly cares about is the underlying stance. Right now, there are no clear signs of a significant recession in the U.S. economy: GDP is still growing, corporate investment remains strong, and while the job market is cooling, unemployment rates are still low. This means the Fed doesn’t have enough reason to quickly pivot to large-scale easing. But the problem is also clear: inflation remains above the 2% target, especially with supply-side factors like energy still causing disruptions. So, the Fed is more like waiting right now, rather than stepping in to save the market. Previously, the market was trading on “rate cut expectations,” but the real rally requires “liquidity release after rate cuts actually happen.” This is why recent gains in U.S. stocks and BTC are increasingly driven by sentiment rather than pure fundamentals. For BTC, this meeting is short-term neutral. The positive: the Fed didn’t tighten further, so the biggest policy risk for the market is temporarily off the table. The pressure: the timeline for rate cuts has been pushed back, meaning dollar liquidity won’t be unleashed on a large scale anytime soon. High-valuation risk assets will still face capital scrutiny. Looking at BTC’s current trend, the 67,000 level remains a key resistance. If upcoming economic data continues to cool, and the Fed signals more easing, BTC could have a chance to break past its previous highs. But if inflation flares up again and U.S. tech stocks see a pullback, BTC will likely follow other risk assets and retest the 62,000-63,000 range, or even lower. The biggest misconception in the market right now is treating “future potential rate cuts” as “liquidity is already flowing.” Major rallies are never purely driven by expectations—they happen when real capital enters the market. Next, focus on two key data points: whether CPI continues to decline, and whether the job market shows significant deterioration. One determines if the Fed has room to cut rates, and the other determines if the market faces risk-off pressure. BTC’s biggest opportunity this year might not come from hearing “rate cuts are here,” but from the day the market truly confirms the liquidity turning point.