Just reviewed Waller's speech after the July 29 FOMC meeting, and the main takeaway is: Hawkish Pause, with a tone leaning hawkish. I’ve summarized the key points of his speech as follows: (1) Setting the tone: Hawkish Pause. Waller clearly stated that the Fed is 'firmly committed to achieving the 2% inflation target' and emphasized that 'if inflation remains elevated, rate hikes will be one of the solutions.' He described this pause as 'just the beginning of the story, not the end,' hinting that the door for rate hikes remains open. (2) Rate hike risks are clearly on the table: Although rates were held steady, the statement included language about 'supply shocks driving up prices in certain areas, including energy,' which lays the groundwork for potential rate hikes. Waller himself admitted that this is a 'time for careful consideration.' (3) Significant internal division: The 9-3 vote result, with three dissenting votes advocating for an immediate rate hike, marks the first time since 2016 that there have been three aligned dissenting votes. Even Kashkari, previously considered dovish, was among the dissenters, indicating that Waller faces greater pressure within the committee than outsiders might imagine. (4) AI and inflation stance: Waller noted that AI-driven investments are pushing up prices, but he believes this may not evolve into long-term inflation, as AI-related price increases are 'one-off,' and the supply side will respond. This aligns with his previous logic on energy shocks—price increases don’t necessarily equate to structural inflation. Summary: Waller’s overall stance is hawkish. The core message he conveyed during the press conference is: The Fed will not tolerate inflation, and if the data continues to show strength, the likelihood of a rate hike in September is high. Guys, the market is already pricing in over a 70% chance of a September rate hike, and Bitcoin is preemptively dropping to test the bottom!! Let’s first watch Bitcoin’s next downside targets: $61,500 for the first target, and around $60,000 for the second target.