The quote/chart from Bloomberg below is accurate. But keep in mind that from 1994 until Warsh, the Fed has operated under various forms of "forward guidance" (saying what you plan to do). That ended with Warsh starting with the June meeting ... and it is now front and center with this meeting. (I've been a critic of forward guidance as it has too often been viewed as a "promise" of future monetary policy, leading to over-speculation and moral hazards. So, I'm glad it is gone.) ---- Bloomberg: Since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2008, the Fed has never raised rates when swaps assigned less than a 60% probability to such a move. Looking further back using fed funds futures, Bank of America strategists found the central bank has never delivered a hike with market-implied odds below 60% since at least 1994.(Jim Bianco)