Hours from the Fed decision, and markets still haven’t converged on a 25bp hike. Implied probability / conviction, highest to lowest: - @Citadel Securities: outright calling for a hike - CME FedWatch: 35.8% - @Kalshi: 27% - @Polymarket: 24.7% Kalshi and Polymarket have stayed within ~2 points of each other all month. Access the full prediction market dataset for normalized, granular data across the two venues. https://eu1.hubs.ly/H0xhJVR0(Dune)