The chart below starts on Sept 18, 2024, the FOMC meeting at which they kicked off the rate-cutting cycle with a 50 bps move. 30-yr yields went straight up (I would argue in response to that cut) and, on May 19, 2026, hit a 19-year high of 5.18%. I continue to argue that the problem is that the Fed has not been taking the inflation "problem" seriously, and that the bond market has been rejecting its easy policy. So, a surprise hike might "fix" the bond market rather than worsen it. The Wall Street adage "bond investors can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking" applies. A little Fed-driven panic about inflation might calm bond investors. Holding steady and the yield uptrend below will just continue until they do "choose" (Warsh's word) to deal with inflation.(Jim Bianco)