BitUnix analyst: Whether to raise interest rates or not is not the end point, the market trades on Walsh's policy function According to BlockBeats, on the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 29th, the real challenge facing the market is no longer just the binary choice of raising interest rates or staying put, but a change in the decision-making mode of monetary policy. Walsh continues to downplay forward guidance, causing the market to lose the basis of relying on official speeches to predict policies in the past. Wall Street can only find answers through probability trading and hedging positions on its own. This is also the reason why the open interest contracts of federal fund futures have reached a new high recently, and the demand for interest rate hikes to hedge has also risen. Even though most institutions still expect interest rates to remain unchanged this time, what will truly influence market volatility will be how Walsh defines inflation risk, whether he accepts short-term shocks from energy prices, and whether he establishes a new policy framework through post meeting speeches. In other words, the core of this FOMC is not the interest rate outcome, but whether the market can gradually understand Walsh's future reaction function, as this will directly affect the repricing of global funds' risk premium on US dollar assets. At the enterprise level, it is also revealed that the capital allocation strategy is undergoing changes. Amazon has chosen to reduce its internal AI models and focus its resources on cutting-edge model research, reflecting a shift in AI competition from "model quantity" to "model quality and resource concentration". This means that large technology companies are starting to place greater emphasis on capital efficiency rather than unlimited expansion of their research and development footprint. The market is gradually focusing on investment return and cash flow efficiency, and the valuation logic of overvalued technology stocks may also change accordingly. On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East remains highly sensitive. Although the United States and Iran continue to seek diplomatic solutions through third parties such as Oman, and Trump and Netanyahu have also sent signals of cooperation after their talks, Iran's missile launches at US military bases, Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers, and disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz all indicate that the conflict still has a high degree of recurrence. The market has not yet fully accounted for the worst-case scenario, so every military friction may push up the risk premium of crude oil again, further affecting inflation expectations and the policy space of the Federal Reserve. OPEC+has released a signal to maintain stable production in 2026 after September, which also means that the supply side will not increase significantly in the short term. If supply from the Middle East is blocked again, oil prices will be more susceptible to event driven fluctuations. It is worth noting that the South Korean KOSPI index has significantly rebounded by more than 30% from its June high, indicating that the Asian market has taken the lead in adjusting to overvalued technology stocks and the global liquidity environment, forming a sharp contrast with the US stock market still maintaining relatively high levels. If the Federal Reserve sends a more hawkish signal than market expectations, US tech stocks may face valuation pressures similar to those in Asian markets; On the contrary, if Walsh maintains the interest rate unchanged and continues the position of "making decisions based on data", the market focus will quickly return to the verification of corporate financial reports and AI capital expenditures. In the short term, what the global market is truly waiting for is not an interest rate answer, but whether the three main themes of policy framework, corporate profitability, and geopolitics can jointly drive the current high risk premium back down.