貝格先生🐢|7月 29, 2026 05:35
BTC Long and Short Term Holder Cost Data Update: Who is Secretly Cutting Meat
Continuing the quote below, two weeks later, I will report this set of data to you again today.
Let's start with the conclusion :
As the boundary between bull and bear, STH-RP still maintains a steady downward trend
LTH-RP, as one of the bottom lines of the deep bear market, has experienced a rare slight decline in the past two weeks
If you are not familiar with this set of data, it is recommended to refer to the following citation first.
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The concept of indicators in the attached figure is as follows:
➡️ Blue line( )= STH-RP (Short Term Holder Average Cost)
➡️ Green Line( )= LTH-RP (Long Term Holder Average Cost)
➡️ Signal=STH-RP<LTH-RP
As shown in the attached figure, the latest data is as follows:
➡️ LTH-RP( )= 48950, down about 603 points compared to two weeks ago
➡️ STH-RP( )= 69331, a decrease of about 270 points compared to two weeks ago
Whether it's the citation below or the update from a month ago (https://(((x.com))/market_gegar/status/2072136661434307014),
I have emphasized a concept to everyone:
Under normal circumstances, the LTH-RP of a bear market will continue to rise, while the STH-RP will continue to decline.
STH-RP is easier to understand:
Short term holders trade every day, so as long as they trade in areas below STH-RP,
It will continuously lower STH-RP;
The main reason for the increase in LTH-RP is detailed in the following citation, and interested friends can refer to it for themselves.
It is worth noting that:
In the past two weeks, LTH-RP has actually shown a "decline",
Perhaps some people may wonder: 'Does this mean the end of the cycle has arrived?' ❓」
Firstly, the answer is: 'No, but it may be a precursor'.
The decline in LTH-RP in the past two weeks seems more like some LTH cannot withstand the cutting of meat,
But after all, the decrease in LTH-RP is actually very small and cannot be called a large-scale surrender,
So we cannot currently assert that the bottom has been reached based on this.
However, the shift of LTH-RP is indeed something that occurs in the bottom range of the cycle,
So we cannot deny the fact that 'the bottom is not far' based on this;
However, this sign will be relatively delayed and difficult to observe.
Finally, before the three paths I previously shared appear (https://((((x.com)))/market_gegar/status/2075529216591053204),
I usually track this set of data about every two weeks for your reference;
Of course, if there are any particularly noteworthy signals in advance, I will also report them to everyone as soon as possible.
The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone
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Related reading resources
Divergent attitudes of funds from two continents: US capital did not withdraw, Asian capital fled first
https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2081926743783592189
'Wave Compression': Waiting for Bidirectional Liquidity Cleaning
https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2081557306601509331
Deviation adjustment STH-RP model update: slowing down and gradually clarifying the bottom range
https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2080469443352854893
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