Is it possible that a global financial crisis is coming? It looks very similar! 1/Storage continues to crash, and the South Korean stock market continues to experience circuit breakers. Many people take it as a joke and think that the leverage in South Korea is too high. But if you look back at the history of global financial crises over the past thirty years, you will find a pattern: every major crisis, South Korea is always the first to fall. Three weeks before the 2020 stock market crash and the four circuit breakers in the US stock market, South Korea's KOSPI had already fallen 35%. Two months before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, South Korea was already experiencing a shortage of US dollars. Before the Nasdaq crash in 2000, Samsung Hynix was expected to undergo a downward revision, with South Korean semiconductors leading the way. In the 1997 Asian financial crisis, South Korea was the first core economy to be broken through. This is not a coincidence. The capital market in South Korea is almost completely open, with foreign ownership consistently exceeding 30%. Samsung and Hynix are among the world's most liquid targets. Free inflow and outflow of funds, sufficient acceptance of orders, and quick transactions for large selling. Therefore, South Korea has become a "reserve cash pool" for global capital. European and American institutions usually earn profits in South Korea, but once local liquidity is tight, margin is in crisis, and debt matures, their first reaction is to sell their overseas holdings and withdraw the money back to their home country to put out the fire. 5/The priority is clear: first break the foundation, then abandon the periphery; Sell the ones with good liquidity first, then move on to the ones that are difficult to monetize. This has little to do with whether South Korea's economy is good or not and whether there is a foam in the stock market. It is purely the instinct of capital self-protection. 6/The fuse of South Korea this time is semiconductor foam overlay leverage. On average, each person in the country has 2 stock accounts, and for every 3 transactions, 1 is a financing offer. As soon as foreign investment withdraws, the domestic leverage market will experience a chain of defaults, and the circuit breaker will not stop. Since the beginning of the year, there have been 35 programmed circuit breakers and 5 market wide circuit breakers, breaking the record set in 2008. But Korea's problem is not Korea itself. It is a warning signal of global liquidity tightening. When global capital begins to draw blood from overseas, South Korea is the first bleeding point, and then it spreads outward layer by layer along the capital chain and industrial chain. The four crises in history have different triggers, but the underlying logic is the same: a liquidity gap first appeared in Europe and America, capital withdrew from South Korea, South Korea collapsed first, then spread to the Asia Pacific, commodities, emerging markets, and finally returned to Europe and America. Will this turn into a global financial crisis? The key variable is not South Korea, but the United States. In 2020, the Federal Reserve suppressed the crisis through unlimited easing and zero interest rates. What about this time? If the Federal Reserve can still cut interest rates and release water, the market may be held back like in 2020. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates or delays rescue efforts, the real crisis may have just begun. Therefore, my judgment is that the circuit breaker in South Korea is a warning, not a conclusion. Whether a financial crisis will come depends on whether the Federal Reserve still has bullets and is willing to fight. Both of these things are uncertain now. For ordinary people, the most important thing at this time is not to predict crises, but to control positions. You should never fill up your position, let alone increase leverage. Always keep a portion of cash, because real wealth opportunities often arise during the most panicked times. 12/My approach: 60% of the core position is placed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and held for the long term. The remaining 40% is cash or short-term bonds, which will be added when the index drops by 15%, 30%, or 40%. It's not bottom fishing, it's executing according to plan. 13/Historical data shows that the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 reach new highs after every major crisis. In 1987, 2000, 2008, 2020, and 2022, without exception. Crisis is not the enemy of long-term investors, it is an opportunity. So I'm not afraid of crisis. What I'm afraid of is that when a crisis comes, I won't have any cash to add to my position. What's even more frightening is that a crisis is coming, and I cut my flesh out of panic and handed over the bloody chips to someone else. The circuit breaker in South Korea is a warning bell, but it does not mean clearing your inventory. It reminds you to check your position, control leverage, and keep cash. The real winner is not the one who predicts the crisis, but the one who can still hold the chips and have ammunition to stock up in the crisis. Encouragement brothers!