Why did HYPE fall all the way from $76 to $55? Is it just because the market is not doing well? Obviously, it's not that simple In the past few days, HYPE has been hit twice near $76, and now it has fallen to around $55 There are countless reasons to talk about But let's still talk about the main factors that may affect the price Firstly, the market is concerned that Hyperliquid will begin to enforce KYC Recently, the Hyperliquid testnet has added an allow list feature to HIP-3 HIP-3 deployment parties can set up address whitelists for their own markets, allowing only verified wallets to participate in transactions Many people's first reaction is: Isn't Hyperliquid focused on permissionless? Are you ready for comprehensive KYC now? But the actual situation is not like that This feature is currently only available on the testnet, and the control is located at the HIP-3 deployment layer. A deployment party can establish a separate license market that requires KYC, but these restrictions only apply to its own DEX The Hyperliquid native market and other HIP-3 markets can still remain permissionless That is to say, this is not about transforming all existing Hyperliquids into one KYC exchange, but rather accommodating two markets on the same underlying liquidity facility On one side is a permissionless market that anyone can participate in; On the other side is a permitted market that can only be accessed through compliant addresses Why add this layer? Because if American institutions, regulated securities firms, and traditional financial companies want to enter the on chain derivatives market, identity verification, customer access, and address whitelists are almost unavoidable In the future, a compliant HIP-3 deployment party may be responsible for KYC and maintaining the allow list, and regulated securities firms may import verified users into these markets This role may not even be undertaken by TradeXYZ It may leave a new position for traditional exchanges, securities firms, or large financial institutions: responsible for deploying compliant versions of perpetual markets for stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, and charging deployment fees from all KYC transaction flows entering these markets Of course, this design also comes with a cost: the same asset may exist in both permissionless and KYC versions, and liquidity will be divided into two markets But because both are still built in the same Hyperliquid environment, market makers can transfer funds and hedge risks between the two markets So the short-term harm of the allow list is the expectation of some users that "no permission is required at all", while the long-term opening may be the entrance to the US market and institutional funds Let me be clear: everything is still in the testing stage and has not been officially launched yet. It cannot be directly equated with Hyperliquid having obtained the US compliance channel But if Hyperliquid really wants to host all financial markets, some form of compliance portal will eventually need to emerge Secondly, 4.86 million HYPEs are waiting to be released from pledge This is currently the most direct supply pressure According to on chain data statistics, approximately 4.86 million HYPEs will be released from pledge in the next 7 days Calculated at approximately $55.08, the value is approximately $268 million, accounting for 1.11% of the current total pledged amount, involving 777 wallets. The largest expiration date among them is July 30th: on that day, about 3.3 million HYPEs were released from pledge, from 176 wallets The entire queue is also very concentrated, with a total of about 4.03 million coins held in the first 5 wallets, accounting for 82.9% of the total amount of staking released in the next 7 days. The largest wallet alone is waiting to release approximately 1.89 million HYPEs, worth about 104 million US dollars, accounting for 38.9% of the entire queue The second largest wallet contains approximately 1.03 million coins, valued at around 56.8 million US dollars. The first two wallets alone control about 60% of the hostage taking convoy The community interprets some addresses as VC or early-stage funds, but currently the only thing that can be confirmed on the chain is that these addresses are being de pledged, and it is not possible to confirm their specific identity solely based on this action, nor can it be directly asserted that they will definitely be sold Removing the pledge does not mean selling But when the price itself has weakened and the market sees billions of dollars of HYPE about to resume liquidity, traders will naturally lower their positions in advance Even if not all of these wallets are ultimately sold, the fear of potential selling pressure is enough to create real selling pressure Thirdly, the US Iran situation has once again suppressed risk appetite This is not HYPE's own problem Although the US Iran conflict temporarily suspended attacks, the tense situation has not been resolved, and energy prices, inflation expectations, and risk asset sentiment continue to be affected When funds begin to avoid high volatility assets, Bitcoin, altcoins, and US growth stocks will all come under pressure together, making it difficult for HYPE to be completely independent If this pressure continues to escalate, HYPE will also follow the fluctuations of the entire risk market On the other hand, if the situation eases, this is also the most likely to quickly reverse among the four factors Finally, HYPE's double tops are still one last blow away From a technical perspective, HYPE has failed to hit around $76 twice in a row, forming a potential double top The current price is about $55.05, with only about $3 left from the market's attention to the $52 neckline If $52 is effectively breached, the double top will be considered further confirmed, and the space below will also be opened up But before the actual fall of $52, it is still only a potential form, not a completed trend reversal So in the short term, we cannot pretend to have no pressure: there are 4.86 million HYPEs waiting to be released from pledge on top; There are geopolitical risks outside that are suppressing the entire market; There is still a $52 neckline to defend on the chart; The KYC message coincidentally encountered the most sensitive unauthorized narrative in the community On the other hand, the underlying use of Hyperliquid has not stopped due to price drops According to on chain data, the proportion of Priority Fees in platform fees has risen to 8.55%, reaching a new milestone. This portion of fees will be directly used to burn HYPE The stock, index, and commodity markets of HIP-3 are still expanding, and TradeXYZ has just demonstrated its ability to discover on chain pre-market prices through CXMT The test network's allow list is not closing the existing market, but reserving an entrance for another type of regulated funds So the question now is not whether HYPE is under pressure. The pressure is very real Four short-term knives are already on the table But currently, there is no one that truly breaks the main line of Hyperliquid's continued expansion relying on HIP-3, transaction revenue, and global liquidity HYPE Hyperliquid HIP3