Trump yesterday: Warsh "wants to do the right thing" but is facing opposition from the Fed board. --- I argued below that the Fed now has 12 independent voters, and Warsh is only 1 of those 12 voters. Trump just confirmed this! A 35%-40 % probability of a hike tomorrow reflects a very real possibility that Warsh could be outvoted, and that we are no longer on forward guidance (hints about what is coming). This is not the Powell/Yellen/Bernanke Fed anymore, so we need to stop explaining how they did things. @EricBalchunas(Jim Bianco)