看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|7月 28, 2026 11:47
Changxin Technology went public this time, and many people only saw a surge on the first day. But I think what's really worth watching is not how much it has risen in a day, but the line behind it: It took Hefei ten years to push a domestic DRAM project into the largest IPO in the history of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. This matter is quite exaggerated. In 2016, the Changxin project was only one direction for government enterprise meetings. In 2017, the Hefei factory officially started construction. In 2018, the first film was successfully released. In 2019, DDR4 was officially put into mass production. In 2020, a financing of 15.6 billion yuan was completed. By 2024, the pre investment valuation has reached 140 billion yuan. In 2025, launch an IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Officially listed in 2026. In ten years, from 0 to the fourth largest DRAM in the world. This is not an ordinary investment, but more like an industrial gamble. Hefei State owned Assets has invested approximately 106 billion yuan over the past decade, with an issuance market value of approximately 579.2 billion yuan. Hefei State owned Assets holds approximately 36.79% of the shares. If calculated solely based on the issuance market value, the holding value has already exceeded 200 billion. If calculated based on the market value of the secondary market on the first day of listing, it would be a trillion dollar book value. But the focus is not on how much money Hefei has earned. The key point is that this model illustrates one thing: Some hard technologies cannot be sustained by short-term capital. The DRAM industry has long research and development cycles, heavy capital expenditures, high technological barriers, and has to face giants like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron that have been fighting for decades. Without long-term funding, local industrial policies, downstream customer binding, national level funds, and industrial chains to support the bottom, ordinary private capital would find it difficult to sustain mass production and profitability. That's also why Changxin's listing is not just a new stock event. It represents the transformation of China's storage industry from a "follower" to a "participant in pricing". Previously, the global DRAM pattern was basically dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. Changxin's current market share is around 7% -8%, which is still a gap from the top three. However, it is no longer a matter of whether it has it or not, but whether it can continue to rise. This change is very important. Especially in the era of AI, storage is no longer just an accessory for smartphones and PCs. HBM、DDR5、 Server DRAM and enterprise grade SSD have become part of AI infrastructure. The more computing power expands, the more important storage becomes. The larger the model, the more critical the memory bandwidth. The more data centers there are, the easier it is for DRAM and NAND demand to be re priced. So the market's willingness to overvalue Changxin is essentially pricing three things at the same time: Firstly, domestic substitution. China must have its own DRAM supply chain. Secondly, the AI storage cycle. Storage has evolved from a cyclical product to a core component of AI infrastructure. Thirdly, there is a premium for industrial security. The more restrictions there are overseas, the more strategic value there is in the domestic storage industry chain. But brothers also need to remain calm. Strong industrial logic does not mean that secondary market prices will always be reasonable. On the first day of its listing, Changxin's market value surged to over 3 trillion yuan, and the market has already put many future expectations in advance. What we really need to see next is not whether it's hot or not today, but: Can DDR5 continue to increase in volume? Can the high-end product structure be upgraded? Can gross profit margin cross cycles? Can HBM truly break through? Can the global market share continue to increase? If these can be fulfilled, Changxin will be a crucial card in China's semiconductor industry. If it cannot be fulfilled, the high valuation will also turn into pressure. My understanding is: The biggest significance of Changxin's listing is not to encourage everyone to chase after a popular new stock. But to tell the market that the path of hard technology is not about seeing results in three months. It requires ten years of investment, long-term patience, industry synergy, and capital support. Hefei's victory this time was not luck. When no one was certain of the answer, it put money, policies, industrial chains, and time on it first. Changxin did not become a giant overnight. It took Hefei ten years to bring domestic DRAM from 0 to the global table.
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