Surprise Rate Hikes Incoming 🚨 This is according to... Citadel Securities. They think the Fed hikes Wednesday, not September like everyone assumes. Markets are only pricing ~40% odds. Citadel says that's way too low. The logic: a surprise hike now hits harder than a "priced-in" one later. It's Warsh stamping his inflation-fighting credibility on the table. Oil's up ~20% this month. Red Sea tensions aren't cooling off. The hawkish case just got stronger. Rate hike or no hike this week? What is your bet?(Lark Davis)