Like I said in yesterday's post, the chances of a rate hike in July are super low. At least in my opinion, it’s not happening. If we consider oil prices, they were higher in March and April this year, but Powell still didn’t choose to hike rates. Now oil prices are relatively lower compared to back then. Personally, I think all current rate hike expectations are based on oil prices staying above $90. If oil prices drop below $70, not only will there be no rate hikes this year, but there’s even a chance of rate cuts. However, if oil prices stay between $80 and $70 for a long time, I still think the probability of a rate hike isn’t high. Unless oil prices hover above $100 for three to five months straight and inflation keeps rising, only then would the Fed seriously consider hiking rates. As things stand now, at least in my opinion, the chances of a rate hike are very low.