Phyrex
Phyrex|7月 27, 2026 08:33
A lot of friends have been asking me how to trade Changxin. Honestly, I’m not qualified to answer. Even with SK Hynix, I missed the most exciting moments. I only started trying to trade in the past month. If I don’t understand something, I just don’t get involved. It was the same with SpaceX before, the same with SK Hynix, and now the same with Changxin. I can only handle things I somewhat understand; I just don’t have the ability for anything else. I noticed that Teacher Jiang seems to be pretty knowledgeable about this and has made some accurate predictions. If you’re interested, you can check it out. I figure it’ll take me at least another month or so to fully understand it. That said, I looked at the data today: Changxin’s market cap has already reached about 55% of SK Hynix’s, but Changxin’s market share is only about 22% of SK Hynix’s (in 2025, SK Hynix’s global DRAM sales share was 34.48%, while Changxin’s was 7.67%). Also, Changxin’s market cap has surpassed Intel’s, but its operational scale hasn’t. In Q2 2026, Intel’s single-quarter revenue was $16.1 billion, roughly 109 billion RMB. Changxin’s estimated revenue for the first half of 2026 is between 110 billion and 120 billion RMB. In other words, Intel’s quarterly revenue is roughly equivalent to Changxin’s half-year revenue. I can understand that having a ‘leading player’ emerge in China will attract a lot of support and trigger a lot of FOMO emotions. So, I don’t know how long this ‘chasing the high’ will last. For now, I’m staying out of it—it’s the safest option for me.
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