Next week might be the most intense stress test for tech stocks this year. Around 34% of S&P 500 companies are set to release earnings reports, with Microsoft and Meta reporting on July 29, followed by Apple and Amazon on July 30. At the same time, there’s also the Fed’s interest rate meeting. The options market is pricing in significant earnings day volatility: Meta ~7.4%, Amazon 6.6%, Microsoft 6.4%, and Apple 3.7%. Google has already set the benchmark: outperforming expectations isn’t enough anymore—what the market cares about now is AI capital expenditure, free cash flow, and return cycles. What will truly determine the direction of tech stocks next might not be who tells the biggest AI story, but who can prove AI is making money first.