mignolet
mignolet|Jul 27, 2026 00:24
After reviewing the results, I found that the MVRV scenario I had expected is emerging quite clearly. If we take into account the market structure and behavioral changes that have taken place since the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, it becomes evident that MVRV is now structurally confined to the 0–1 range, unlike in previous cycles. I'm planning to validate this framework further, refine it, and then release it as an official dataset. Ultimately, MVRV requires a new analytical framework. If the interpretation of MVRV has changed this clearly, then it's highly likely that other cycle indicators and on-chain metrics also need to be reinterpreted under a new framework rather than relying on historical standards. And if ETFs continue to play a significant role in the market, I believe this divergence will become even more obvious in the next cycle. The traditional interpretation of MVRV will likely differ even more from what we've seen in previous market cycles.(mignolet)
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