Hupzy (Spot On Chain)|Jul 26, 2026 22:12
๐จ The US and Iran have halted strikes amid reports of new negotiations, triggering a sharp risk-on move across global markets.
US oil crashed ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ด% (WTI), with Brent down ๐ฒ.๐ฌ%. Equity futures surged: Nasdaq 100 +๐ญ.๐ฎ%, S&P 500 +๐ฌ.๐ณ%, Dow +๐ฌ.๐ฒ%. Gold edged up +๐ฌ.๐ณ%.
The market is beginning to price in a peace deal โ a material step toward active negotiations rather than just a temporary pause, following the prior night's mutual de-escalation.
๐๐๐ฝ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ: An 8% oil crash is a massive ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ that directly changes the Fed calculus for this week's rate decision and PCE inflation data. Lower oil eases inflation pressure, increasing the odds of a dovish Fed stance. For BTC and crypto, this is bullish on two fronts: risk-on sentiment from reduced geopolitical risk, and lower inflation pressure improving the rate-cut outlook. The key risk is whether the halt holds โ prior de-escalations have been fragile. Watch for confirmation of negotiations and any reversal in oil or equity futures.
source: KobeissiLetter
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