《 Huang Renxun's 950 billion yuan big deal in South Korea: Don't be fooled by numbers, the market will vote with your feet ❗ ️️ Huang Renxun, Li Zaiming, and Li Zairong sat around and raised their glasses, enjoying their drinks. The $950 billion chip order has been finalized, with a scale close to half of South Korea's annual GDP. But on the same day, SK Hynix fell over 8%, SanDisk fell over 10%, and Intel fell over 7%. The stock that signed the largest order fell the hardest. The market is voting with its feet. Will the US stocks in the storage and chip sectors continue to decline in the future? What is 950 billion? It's not a cash payment, it's an 'intended amount' Including future years of cumulative flow, upstream and downstream supporting facilities, and even repeated calculations. Essentially, it is a ten-year framework agreement, not a one-time order. Politics requires big numbers, and the capital market requires real cash flow: when the two conflict, stock prices will speak first. ⚡ Why did SK Hynix fall the hardest? Long term cooperation is a double-edged sword ⚔️ SK Hynix has signed a long-term HBM supply agreement with Nvidia, with price and quantity locked in. During the price increase cycle, long-term contracts serve as a protective umbrella, locking in low prices; In the downward price cycle, long-term contracts are the ceiling, and if high priced supplies encounter a drop in spot prices, profits will be suppressed instead. More subtly, Nvidia's costs have been locked in, and the selling price continues to rise. The contract signed by Hynix is a "profit ceiling+cost floor" sales contract. Impact on Micron (MU): Structural threats outweigh positive effects Nvidia needs three suppliers: Samsung, Hynix, and Micron. Micron is both a spare tire and a tire, and will not be completely eliminated. However, the pin speed of Micron's HBM4 engineering samples is lower than that of Samsung and Hynix. SemiAnalysis predicts that SK Hynix will account for 70% of Nvidia's HBM4 supply, while Samsung will account for 30%. Micron may miss the first year of Rubin mass production. Micron's core logic has not collapsed, but its competitive advantage is shrinking. Favorable factors: Micron's forward P/E ratio is only 9.2 times (average of the Nasdaq is 25 times), AI memory demand is exploding, and Nvidia needs diversified procurement to avoid being choked by a single supplier Disadvantage factors: The HBM4 technology is lagging behind, the "duopoly pattern" of the HBM market is forming, and the 950 billion yuan order further locks in the long-term position of Korean manufacturers. If HBM4 falls behind again, Micron will be squeezed on the edge of low profits, and its competitive advantage is shrinking. How to view the stocks of the storage sector in the future? In the short term, the positive news of 950 billion yuan has been digested by the market, and the selling of the sector system may continue. Mid line: SK Hynix long-term agreement locks in revenue visibility, but price risk needs to be verified; The progress of Micron HBM4 certification and capacity ramp up determines the pace of repair. In the long run, the two Korean giants have locked in the first mover advantage, and Micron's core variable is not this big order, but whether HBM4 can catch up. Can you summarize it in one sentence The essence of the 950 billion yuan order is the "certainty confirmation" of the AI storage track, not Micron's "life-saving straw". Micron's current forward P/E ratio is only 9 times, and pessimistic expectations have been fulfilled. But if the HBM4 technology progress cannot catch up with the Korean series, the valuation repair space will be forever limited. The catalyst that really needs to be monitored: whether the Micron HBM4 engineering sample can pass Nvidia's full certification in 2027: If it can, it is a confirmation signal of mid-term bottom rebound. Micron SK Hynix HBM4 Nvidia AI Storage 950 Billion Single US Stock