**[Analysis: Bitcoin Rebound Faces Fourfold Pressure, Rising U.S. Treasury Yields Intensify Market Risks]** Odaily Planet Daily News — CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly report stating that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury recently rose to approximately 4.7%, nearing the upper range of the past five years. The high-interest-rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing financing costs and asset discount rates, and exerting greater pressure on risk assets. Currently, the futures market estimates a roughly 38% probability of a rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting, but a Reuters survey of 104 economists generally expects rates to remain unchanged. In the Bitcoin market, Axel Adler pointed out that BTC rebounded approximately 11% from its June low of around $59,000 to near $66,000, but has since fallen back to around $64,300. The market is simultaneously facing four potential risks: 1. **Significant compression in volatility**: Actual volatility in July dropped by 31%, reaching the 8th percentile of historical ranges, indicating the possibility of more dramatic movements ahead. 2. **Weak demand in the U.S. spot market**: Over the past two and a half months, spot trading has consistently been at a discount, with no sustained capital inflows observed. 3. **Insufficient market buying liquidity**: Stablecoins continue to flow out of exchanges, and new capital activity is near annual lows. 4. **Investors are still realizing losses**: During the recovery phase of profits, some positions are being liquidated, exerting pressure on prices. Additionally, Adler mentioned that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has not continued large-scale Bitcoin purchases recently. Instead, he published a lengthy article recommending 38 books on civilization, currency, energy, and technological development, aiming to construct a theoretical framework for Bitcoin as the result of long-term financial evolution. Adler believes the market is currently in a critical observation phase, requiring close attention to changes in liquidity, the recovery of U.S. demand, and whether investor behavior improves.