Should you buy the dip on the left side of the bear market cycle or wait for the right side? I bet many of you would choose to wait for the right side to play it safe. It increases certainty, but the trade-off is losing some profit potential. But is 'waiting for the right side' really that easy? Let’s look at a real-life example: The cost basis model based on different coin ages is one of the most effective signals for trend reversals during past bear markets—it’s almost never been wrong historically. When the 'short-term cost' (red line) crosses above the 'long-term cost' (green line), that’s the 'right-side signal' we often talk about for trend reversals. But before that happens, there’s usually a process: the price drops below the red line (marked as 1), then rebounds to the green line and faces resistance (marked as 2), along with several rounds of testing. Looking at the chart, the structure from February to July is very similar to June to December of 2022. The coefficient we get by dividing the green line position by the red line is 1.11; back in 2022, it was 1.08. In other words, the relative distance between the cost bases now is roughly the same as it was during the 2022 bear market bottom (short-term and long-term holder costs are pretty close). Simply put, if BTC pumps a few big green candles now, the red line could cross above the green line, triggering the right-side signal. If we take BTC’s price crossing the red line as the starting point, by the time the right-side signal appeared in 2022, BTC had already risen by 20%. Since the relative position of the cost bases is the same, if we apply this to the current situation (assuming BTC is at $64,000), the signal might appear when BTC hits $76,000. But here’s the problem: If BTC reaches $76k, would you dare to buy? Would you still want to buy? For those who’ve been waiting for $50k or $40k with no positions, should you keep waiting at that point, or follow the signal and buy high? If it were me, I’d definitely feel anxious and conflicted. If I don’t buy, I risk missing out on the entire bull market. If I do buy and it drops back to $50k, my mindset would completely collapse... The purpose of this post isn’t to argue whether the left side or right side is better. It’s to show, through a real-life example, that buying the dip isn’t as simple as pressing the Enter key on your keyboard. It’s a systematic process. From macro to micro, you need to analyze, backtest, predict, plan, execute, and manage risk—every step requires thorough preparation. Other people’s strategies will always belong to them. Even if you copy them exactly, you might not achieve the same results. If you tell me you went all-in at $16,000 during the last cycle, all I can say is, if you’re not just bragging, then you’re either incredibly lucky or truly the chosen one.