小龙先生|Jul 24, 2026 12:29
Core analysis of Bitcoin's current market: The rebound is most likely over, with a high probability of continued decline and wide-range consolidation ahead!
(1) Current market characterization: Both bulls and bears show weak momentum. Bulls lack the strength to counterattack, and bears haven't launched an aggressive offensive. The price is seesawing around the 65K level, with a directional breakout imminent.
(2) Clear legislation won't pass in August, confirming the rebound peak at 66,900. The short-term structure is weak, but the 65K support hasn't been effectively broken yet. It’s only a matter of time before it is.
(3) Bull-bear conflict exists. Long-term BTC holders are still buying around the 65K level, preventing panic selling. However, ETF institutions and short-term holders are offloading BTC.
(4) The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated into full-scale war, with neither side backing down. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is also at risk of closure. Oil prices have surged to around $100, and energy inflation will ripple through the "oil price-inflation-rate hike" chain, impacting the crypto market. This is a potential bearish factor for BTC!
(5) Bitcoin's rebound potential is now limited. Earlier this morning, the three-in-one trading system AI issued a shorting plan: enter short positions when the price rebounds to around 65.5K.
(6) Given the divergence in daily volume-price trends and the shrinking bullish momentum, the price is highly likely to consolidate downward to around 60K, continuing the wide-range consolidation pattern.
(7) As for whether Bitcoin will break below 60K and 58K again, it depends on the volume and capital data when the price approaches 60K. However, the final leg down in the bear market is highly probable—it’s just a matter of time.
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