Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|Jul 23, 2026 18:12
Looking at QQQ from the weekly chart, I think the bull market structure is still intact. If you zoom in on the weekly chart (Figure 1), you'll notice the price action is very consistent—it's a textbook Higher High + Higher Low structure. After each rally to a new high, the price pulls back to the previous Pivot High before continuing upward. The whole process is like climbing stairs: rise for a bit, take a break, rise again, take another break. As of now, I think this current 'break' will most likely settle around 637, which is the platform high from late 2025 to early 2026. If it does pull back to this level, it would actually be a very healthy technical correction on the weekly chart. That said, I don’t think it’ll drop straight to 637 in one go. Looking at the daily chart (Figure 2), I’m leaning more toward a gradual downward consolidation, with the adjustment completing before the midterm elections at the end of September. My projected path is a drop to around 682 first. This level is a confluence of support from the daily EMA100, the 4-hour EMA200, and a previous gap, so there’s a high chance of a technical rebound here. If there’s a rebound, I’ll be watching the 704 level closely, as it’s the gap left from this current drop and could potentially be filled. After the gap is filled, I think the market will likely continue downward. In other words, I’m leaning toward a pattern of drop → rebound → further drop. Step by step downward, not a one-time crash. So, I see this correction as a normal pullback within a bull market, not the start of a bear market. My mid-to-long-term view hasn’t changed: the QQQ bull market cycle is still intact. I still believe QQQ has a chance to reach 780-800 by the end of 2026, and the S&P 500 could hit 8000-8200. However, before reaching those targets, we might see a 5%-10% correction this summer. That’s why, when QQQ was around 710, I chose to hedge my long spot positions with a Bear Put Spread. Long-term, I’m still bullish on AI and holding my spot positions. Short-term, I’m respecting the technicals and macro environment, managing risk accordingly. Let’s see how this plays out.
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