RamenPanda|Jul 23, 2026 15:22
I’m announcing again:
The fundamentals of semiconductors are super strong, with revenue skyrocketing—these are undeniable facts.
But here’s the issue: semiconductor infrastructure won’t keep expanding indefinitely. The big infrastructure boom will eventually come to an end.
Semiconductor stock prices have pretty much priced in the end-phase of the infrastructure cycle. What’s going to keep growing next is semiconductor revenue, not stock prices.
Why is the infrastructure cycle nearing its end? Because there are fewer buyers for bonds issued by major model companies, and the growth rate of capital expenditures is about to peak. Capital expenditures will still increase, but the pace will slow down.
So…
We’re now at the turning point from the investment cycle to the return cycle.
The shift from capital spending to capital returns.
It’s time to start focusing on software companies that can leverage AI to make money directly from users!!
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