Capital Economics assistant economist Nicolas Crittenden said a new round of Iranian strikes could derail an initial Gulf region economic recovery. The escalation risks reversing gains after last month’s US‑Iran ceasefire eased disruptions to regional trade and energy supplies. June private‑sector activity improved across the Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia; exports from key trading partners rose and flight volumes recovered to near pre‑conflict levels, signalling a rebound in tourism and logistics. Renewed disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could stall the recovery, and downside risks are mounting against Capital Economics’ forecast of roughly a 6% GDP contraction in the Gulf this year.(金十数据)