看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Jul 23, 2026 06:42
In Alphabet's Q2 financial report, many people only saw one sentence: Revenue has reached a new high, with strong AI driven growth. But I think what really matters in this financial report is not how much money Google has earned. But it directly puts the current contradictions of AI giants on the table. 1/The parts that are optimistic about first. Alphabet's Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Google Services is still the basic drive, search YouTube、 Both subscriptions and devices are growing. Google Cloud is even stronger, with revenue of 24.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 82%. What does this mean? AI is indeed bringing incremental benefits to Google. Enterprise customers are buying AI infrastructure, while cloud businesses are benefiting from the demand for large models, AI tools, TPUs, and computing power. Previously, people were worried that Google would be disrupted by AI search. But now, at least in the short term, AI has not killed Google, but has begun to become its new growth engine. The Gemini line is also crucial. Gemini Enterprise has been adopted by 90% of the Fortune 100 companies. The Gemini App has nearly 950 million monthly active users. This means that Google not only has models, but also distribution channels. Search, Android YouTube、Workspace、Cloud, These are all the entry points for it to push AI in front of users. Many AI companies have technology but no traffic. Google's biggest advantage is: It has both models, entrances, and customers. But the problem also arises. AI is not a free growth. The biggest concern for the market this time is not poor income, but excessive capital expenditure. Alphabet's Q2 capital expenditures approached $44.9 billion, almost doubling year-on-year. The CapEx guidance for the whole year has also been raised to the range of 1950-205 billion US dollars. This is the problem that AI giants are facing together now: Income is growing, But expenses are also exploding. Data center GPU、TPU、 Electricity, servers, and network equipment all require money. AI is not a light asset Internet business. It is becoming more and more like a heavy capital war. There is another detail that needs to be carefully examined. This time, Alphabet's net profit was $112.1 billion, with an EPS of $9.11, which looks very exaggerated. But a large portion of it comes from unrealized returns on approximately $98 billion in securities investments. That is to say, this is not solely a business profit earned through search, advertising, and cloud services. So it cannot be simply understood as: Google's main business profits have tripled. A more accurate view is: The main business is indeed strong, but the sharp increase in net profit has a one-time investment income bonus. This difference is very important. So the feeling this financial report gives me is: Google remains one of the strongest technology companies in the world. Search is not dead. YouTube is still growing. Cloud is accelerating. Gemini has also entered the stage of large-scale commercialization. But the market is no longer satisfied with 'AI has great prospects'. The market is starting to ask a more realistic question: When will you be able to steadily turn into free cash flow after spending so much money on building AI infrastructure? 6/That's also why the financial report is good, but the stock price may still fluctuate. Because investors don't currently trust AI. But instead, start calculating for AI. Previously, the market only asked: Who has a model? Who has computing power? Who has users? Now the market is starting to ask: Who can make money? Who can recoup the cost? Who's CapEx wouldn't eat up cash flow? This is the signal that AI trading has entered the second half. My opinion is simple: Alphabet's financial report proves that AI is still driving the growth of big companies. But it also reminds everyone that AI is not a cost free narrative. The companies that can truly emerge in the future are not just those that can tell AI stories. But rather, it can turn AI into a company that generates revenue, profits, and cash flow. This financial report of Google is not "the AI foam broke". But rather telling the market: The story of AI is still ongoing, but from now on, capital will increasingly take ROI seriously.
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