普达特
普达特|Jul 22, 2026 15:06
Nowadays, many people with ulterior motives or novices FUD Bitcoin, but there are only two claims: "quantum computer cracking" and "Bitcoin halving leads to unprofitable mining". In fact, these are just following the crowd without seeking a deeper understanding: In theory, if a quantum computer with around 1500 qubits can be effectively controlled, the "Scheuer" algorithm can indeed crack and deduce a BTC address's private key based on elliptic curve algorithm in about 20 minutes. But this quantum computer is not as simple as assembling a desktop computer in a sea view room at Huaqiangbei; The most advanced technology for quantum computers that can effectively control the "decoherence state", "zero noise extrapolation", and "probability error elimination" of quantum data is currently less than 100 qubits; The cost of controlling quantum bits is exponential. Currently, it is estimated that controlling a quantum computer that can stably run 1500 quantum bits would cost up to $1 billion per day, requiring extremely high hardware environments such as "ultra-low temperature (mK level)", magnetic shielding, vacuum environment, filtering defects and quasi particles, full microwave leakage suppression, and large-scale system cooling. This not only requires strict site conditions, but also a large amount of electricity. A quantum computer that can crack BTC private keys requires gigawatts of electricity per day, and the cost of cracking is much higher than the value of BTC cracked; At present (2026), although the world's largest system claims to be able to reach hundreds of physical bits, it is far from fault-tolerant and can only run in a laboratory for a short period of time. The machine to crack BTC may take 10-20 years or more, and it may only be owned by a few countries/institutions. The claim that Bitcoin halving leads to unprofitable mining is even more groundless. The current block reward is 3.125->1.5625 (28 years) ->0.78125 (32 years). With the continuous halving of BTC and the lack of BTC network transfer behavior, it seems that BTC mining is indeed unprofitable; But as the price of BTC rises, this statement is naive. Calculated at the current price of $65000, the revenue from breaking a block is 3.125 * 65000=200000 US dollars. If the price of BTC is halved to 130000 next time, the revenue from breaking a block will still be 200000 US dollars. If BTC rises to 260000 US dollars in 2032, the revenue from breaking a block will still be 200000 US dollars. As the price of BTC continues to rise, miners will always be profitable! Moreover, BTC's rise to $1 million is in the near future
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