I have always been clear about shorting oil, and the reason is very clear. This should be the fifth wave. I also often take book retracement in the first four waves, which is very normal. After all, we are not Trump, not Iran, and I don't know what the next step will be, but why do I still insist on not stopping losses when high retracement, and continue to carry orders? Firstly, my theory is that oil prices cannot continue to rise indefinitely in the long run. For example, the historical high of WTI was $147, which is almost impossible to replicate. In the past 18 years, the highest price of WTI was $130, and this time the highest price under the Hormuz blockade was $120. This means that as long as the liquidation price is raised to $150, it is almost impossible to be liquidated. In fact, $120 is already wealthy enough. Of course, if a very extreme situation really occurs, there is no way, but the probability of such an extreme situation is very low. At least I think the United States and Iran will not have such an extreme situation this time. It's really a nuclear war, and the price doesn't matter anymore. Secondly, the impact of Hormuz is not only on the oil prices in the United States, but also on the oil prices around the world. Although Iran is a theocratic country, the act of provoking public anger is not easy for Iran. The trend of this war is already very obvious here. Iran uses Hormuz as a cash cow, while the United States relies on powerful firepower to block Iranian ports. This is a war of survival that restricts each other and lasts longer than anyone else. Although Trump is affected by the mid-term election, the United States is a whole. In the face of the huge machine of the United States, Iran can only survive for a limited time. It is obvious that the negotiation will be much easier when the United States blocks Iranian ports. There are still third and fourth places behind, but their significance is not significant anymore. Simply put, the most empty oil is like knowing where the ceiling is, where the probability lower limit is, and the rest is just waiting for time. Originally, my biggest concern was the funding rate, but now it's not a big problem. So, I think short selling oil is a rally war, which requires sufficient margin, patience, and waiting. Of course, I will continue to short at high prices, such as preparing $92 Brant and $87 WTI, which have already been put on hold. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market