Comparing this cycle to the previous one, there’s a lot we can learn from: In the 2022 bear market, bitcoin:native dropped about 30% below the MA200 before truly bottoming out, which took three months. Now, we’re back in a similar range. If we use that as a reference, it’s likely we’ll hover around here for a while before eventually breaking down completely! OKX The estimated bottom price is between $43K-$50K, and it’s expected to hit the bottom roughly three months from now. Right now, the market is lifeless and moving sideways. Retail investors are waiting for a technical rebound, but the big players are using this range to repeatedly lure in buyers and distribute their holdings. There’s absolutely no sign of a proper bottom formation or turnover. Looking at the macro situation, we’re currently in the most frustrating phase of recession expectations. The liquidity the market is hoping for hasn’t been released yet, while leverage within the market is still holding on stubbornly. Big players definitely won’t show mercy and pump prices at this level—they’ll need a sharp accelerated drop to clear out long positions and their liquidity. Based on cycle symmetry and the rhythm of capital exhaustion, the real bottom is most likely to appear in October-November this year. By then, the macroeconomic headwinds will have subsided, coupled with one final panic sell-off in the market, which will create the true golden buying opportunity. As for the bottom price, it definitely won’t obediently sit on the moving average line. Big players will deliberately smash through the MA200 to target the massive stop-loss orders below the $50K psychological level, creating a complete technical breakdown illusion and forcing out bloodied chips.