律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|Jun 15, 2026 01:11
Macro outlook for this week: The US Iran agreement sets a bullish tone, US and Japanese interest rate resolutions test the bull market's strength, and Walsh's "debut" is worth paying attention to BlockBeats News: On June 15th, at the beginning of this week, the US Iran agreement seemed to set the tone for the continuation of the bull market in the US stock market, and the market opened higher to welcome positive news. However, the focus of the market will shift to the interest rate decisions of several major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, during the week, and Walsh will receive his first important speech since taking office. The market expects him to send a clear signal on the expected path of interest rates and the reform of the Federal Reserve's communication mechanism at that time. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all Beijing time): On Monday at 15:15, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; On Tuesday, to be determined, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision; 14: 30. Vice Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, held a press conference on monetary policy; Tuesday 20:15, ADP employment figures for the week ending May 30th in the United States; At 2:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC released its interest rate decision and summary of economic expectations; 2: 30. Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh held a press conference on monetary policy; At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for the week ending June 13th in the United States. In terms of policy signals, the market is focusing on whether the three hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have been implemented: firstly, whether the statement in the original policy statement that "the next step is to lean towards interest rate cuts" will be deleted. If this wording is deleted, it means that the Federal Reserve officially ends its previous loose tendency and shifts towards a policy tone centered on anti inflation. Next is the change in the dot matrix. The March dot matrix shows that there was still one interest rate cut this year, but this time the dot matrix is likely to shift towards showing stable interest rates, and there may even be a situation where most officials expect a rate hike. Finally, there is a risk preference bias. If officials' concerns about inflation significantly increase and their concerns about the labor market diminish, it may pave the way for subsequent interest rate hikes. On Friday (June 19th), due to the June Day holiday, the New York Stock Exchange in the United States was closed for one day. Trading of precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, stock index, and US Treasury futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 20th, and trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Trading Platform ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 20th.
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