The rise and fall of crude oil this week have been quite abnormal, it really looks like a game. It's just like the last time in 'Saving Private Ryan' - the extreme rescue parachute pilot. Although none of the rescued pilots have appeared until now, it is rumored that this is actually a script played out by the United States when it was discovered to be digging for enriched uranium. This time, they were rescued after being shot down again, but there were no convincing details, making it difficult to determine whether this was an American act or an Iranian initiative But the words' Iranian aggression 'and' US self-defense counterattack 'really seem to have a sense of confusion, as if everything is Iran's fault and the US is behaving very unfairly. Regardless of who took the initiative in this round, wouldn't it be strange for the United States to be invaded on Iran's doorstep? I thought Iran had landed on the North American continent if I didn't know So this narrative approach may be used to internally explain why the level of military conflict has escalated again, to gain legitimacy within the alliance system, and to seize the moral high ground for future actions. But now the oil price is indeed at a recent low, although the risk premium squeezed after the early morning war has rebounded, it cannot explain why the oil price remains below 90. So there are two possibilities: 1. Big Capital judged that the conflict was only temporary, and it was indeed Iran's initiative provocation. Trump was not prepared to continue to escalate 2. This is only a temporary mismatch in the market, as the tail panic caused by the decline in the US stock market has led to capital rushing out, which is greater than the risk premium of war. Once the US stock market stabilizes, oil prices will also rebound significantly