The new stock god of the US stock market, Leopold's Situational Awareness LP fund, has completely changed its holdings in Q1 2026 (as shown in Figure 1)! I double checked several times and thought I was wrong. The position in Figure 1 really shocked my chin and scared me. I quickly cleared almost half of my AI US stock position tonight! You should know that this timing is quite strange. First of all, the 10-year US Treasury yield has recently skyrocketed a bit absurdly, reaching 4.62%. Combined with Nvidia's heavyweight financial report to be released after Wednesday's close, a large number of put short positions will be announced at this time. It feels like something big is going to happen! You should know that Leopold was still heavily investing in AI infrastructure in Q4 last year, and now it is directly entering a comprehensive short selling mode. What did this guy see? Let's first take a look at the changes in Top holdings, which are as shocking as earthquakes: Q1 2026 holdings (as of March 31): SMH PUT (Semiconductor ETF Short) -14.94%, market value of $2.04 billion NVDA PUT -11.47%, market value of 1.57 billion US dollars ORCL PUT -7.84%, market value of $1.07 billion AVGO PUT -7.36%, market value of $1 billion AMD PUT -7.09%, market value of $970 million You read it right, the top five positions are all PUT options. To be honest, when I first saw this data, I confirmed it at least 5 times! What does this mean? Leopold is shorting the entire technology and semiconductor sectors with real gold and silver. (It is also possible that it is a combination option hedging strategy, in order to preserve the fruit, but the overall put is much more than the call) Core logic changes: Position logic for Q4 2025 of last year: • Heavy warehouse AI infrastructure: Bloom Energy (electricity), CoreWeave (computing power), Lumentum (optical communication) Core viewpoint: The bottleneck of AI development is power and computing infrastructure, not chips Strategy: Clearing chip stocks such as NVIDIA and TSMC, shifting towards upstream energy and data centers The current position logic for Q1 2026: Fully short tech giants and semiconductors! Shortlist: SMH, NVDA, ORCL, AVGO, AMD, MU, TSM, ASML, INTC • Simultaneously retain some CALL options for hedging: MU, SNDK, TSM's CALL This is a 180 degree turn! My interpretation and reflection: Leopold's operation releases three core signals: one ️⃣ AI foam theory? He may believe that the current valuation of AI stocks has severely overdrawn future expectations. Although he still believes that AGI will be achieved in 2027-28, the market has already priced this expectation ahead of schedule. Look at the current Nvidia AMD、 How many times are Broadcom and PE? The market's expectation is for sustainable growth, but Leopold may have seen a turning point. two ️⃣ Shift from infrastructure to short selling chips Last Q4, his logic was: chips are not the bottleneck, power is. So clearing chip stocks and heavily investing in energy. Now he has gone further: not only are chips not the bottleneck, chip stocks are also severely overvalued! So go short directly. But at the same time, he retained energy and computing infrastructure targets such as BE (Bloom Energy) 6.42%, IREN (Bitcoin Miner to AI Computing Power) 2.93%, and CORZ (Core Scientific) 2.84%. This indicates that his long-term optimism towards AI infrastructure has not changed, but he believes that the market's pricing of chip stocks is too crazy. three ️⃣ Hedging or real short selling? Pay attention to one detail: while shorting, he kept some CALL options: • MU CALL - 3.09% • SNDK CALL - 2.84% • TSM CALL - 2.59% This is a cross option strategy that involves buying both PUT and CALL. He's betting on volatility! Regardless of whether it rises or falls, as long as the volatility is large enough, this strategy can make money. But PUT's position is significantly larger than CALL, indicating that he is more inclined to be bearish. Risk and Controversy Points: Leopold's operation carries great risks: Time risk: Options have a term, and if the market does not experience a significant drop before the option expires, they will lose all the premium Opponent risk: He is shorting the world's top technology companies, whose fundamentals remain strong Market sentiment risk: The AI boom is still ongoing, and the Trump administration is vigorously promoting the development of AI. Short selling technology stocks is equivalent to going against the trend But Leopold is a smart person with strong situational awareness. I believe he must have seen something that ordinary people cannot see. Possible triggering factors: SpaceX's Century IPO, scheduled for mid June, will cause significant liquidity drain in the market AI capital expenditure peaks (the growth rate of AI investment by Microsoft, Google, and Meta may slow down) Geopolitical risks (escalation of China US technology war, restructuring of semiconductor supply chain) • Macroeconomic issues (Recently, the US Treasury interest rates have surged, and investment banks predict that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. There is still a possibility of interest rate hikes, which undoubtedly brings higher costs for AI with high capital expenditures) What should we do as ordinary investors? Don't blindly follow orders! Leopold manages a hedge fund that can handle complex options strategies and has a professional team for risk management. Ordinary investors do not have the ability and resources to do so. But we can learn from his thinking: Maintain a skeptical attitude: Do not blindly believe in the narrative that 'AI will always rise'. Every asset has a cycle, and even the best companies have times when they are overvalued. Pay attention to changes in the industry chain: From chips to energy infrastructure, the AI industry chain is undergoing structural changes. Where the bottleneck lies, there are investment opportunities. • Risk hedging: If you heavily invest in technology stocks, you can consider reducing your holdings at high prices or allocating some safe haven assets such as gold, US bonds, and cash. • Look for the long and focus on the short: I am optimistic about AI in the long term, but there may be significant adjustments in the short term. You can set take profit and stop loss, don't cling to it. My personal opinion is that Leopold's operation may be very painful in the short term (1-3 months). If technology stocks continue to rise, their PUT will quickly depreciate. But from the perspective of 6-12 months, he may be right. The current market's optimism towards AI has reached its peak. Any negative news, such as a tech giant's AI investment return falling short of expectations or an AI safety incident, can trigger a chain reaction. And don't forget, this guy's return rate in H1 2025 last year was+47%, far exceeding the+6% of the Pu500. He has this track record, which deserves our attention to his judgment. Finally, to summarize: The core signal of Situational Awareness LP's 2026 Q1 position is: Fully short technology stocks and semiconductors (7 out of the top 10 PUTs) • Retain AI infrastructure (energy, computing power, data centers) Use option strategies to hedge risks and bet on significant market fluctuations The logic has been upgraded from 'chips are not a bottleneck' to 'chip stocks are severely overvalued', which is an extremely radical and bold shift. The next 2-3 months will be a critical period for verifying Leopold's judgment. Wait and see!