[Institutions: The extent of global central bank policy tightening may be quite limited] According to a report by Jinse Finance on May 17, TsLombard stated that an aggressive tightening cycle is unlikely to occur. In the face of oil price shocks, the extent of global central bank policy tightening may be quite limited. In Europe, the energy shock has already been dragging down economic activity. The UK labor market has been unstable for some time, and hiring sentiment in Europe is becoming increasingly weak. In our view, the tightening measures by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this year will be lower than market expectations, and this possibility is currently underestimated. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement policy tightening in the short term, and even if it does, it is almost certain to wait until 2027. (Jin10)