Trump's visit to China script repeats, everything is a bargaining chip Trump also visited China during his first term and then launched a trade war upon returning.... From November 8th to 10th, 2017, Trump visited China with a "state visit+" and a private banquet at the Forbidden City, signing a commercial order worth approximately $253.5 billion. At that time, the market was optimistic, and the general narrative was: 'The relationship between China and the United States was stabilized by personal connections and large orders.' Four months later, the table was overturned. 1. In January 2018, tariffs were imposed on imported solar panels and large washing machines worldwide, marking a prelude to the war. 2. On March 22, 2018, a presidential memorandum was signed, proposing to impose tariffs on approximately $60 billion worth of Chinese goods based on the "301 investigation," effectively declaring war. 3. On July 6, 2018, the first batch of tariffs on 34 billion US dollars worth of Chinese goods officially came into effect. From 'state visit+' to the 301 investigation, it was only 134 days apart. Reading this history, you can clearly see two things. Firstly, the large order of $253.5 billion is never a result, it is a bargaining chip. Trump is not here to make friends, he is here to explore prices. He wants to see how much the other party is willing to offer at once under the highest level of hospitality. The result is 253.5 billion. Then he went back to settle the accounts: this short-term purchase cannot even fill in the small amount of trade deficit, let alone structural issues such as technology transfer and industrial policies. After testing, if the price is not enough, then switch tools - tariffs will be introduced. Secondly, the market's pricing for 'private narrative' is the most expensive tuition fee in this round. The optimism of the global capital market towards the US China relationship at the end of 2017 was essentially based on the fundamental assumption that 'Trump will be soft handed because he is well received' in trading. This is a typical emotional pricing, not data pricing. As soon as the 301 investigation report was released, the global capital market experienced severe fluctuations throughout 2018, with A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US technology stocks being completely wiped out. Going back to this round, the script is almost copied. The contract that needs to be signed will be signed, the necessary privileges will be provided, and the 'historic breakthrough' that needs to be mentioned will be said. But as long as the structural problems are not resolved, the trade deficit, technology, and industrial chain, all these benefits will only be a warm-up for a new round of extreme pressure. So what? My judgment is twofold: 1、 Don't price the 'atmosphere', price the 'terms'. There is no promise of default costs being discussed now. 2、 Maintain the highest level of skepticism towards the narrative of 'Trump is different this time'. He has already completed the script in his first term, so there is no reason to believe that the writing style will change in the second time. The most stable rule in Trump's policy style is that all friendliness is bargaining; All privileges are chips; All orders are ammunition for the next round of pressure. This is not conspiracy theory, this is a lesson taught to the market with real money in 2018.