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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|5月 12, 2026 15:24
The US bond market crisis is intensifying. While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown. The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025. Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve. At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year. The question then becomes: How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis? And, who folds first?(The Kobeissi Letter)
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Timeline

5月 18, 02:18The 30-year yield reaches its 2007 peak
5月 17, 15:15Structural Collapse of the Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio
5月 17, 14:43In April, layoffs in the United States surged by 38%.
5月 17, 07:23U.S. Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs this week
5月 17, 03:07Regulatory benefits overshadowed by macro factors
5月 16, 11:47U.S. inflation accelerates, market expects the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates
5月 16, 02:23The U.S. stock market plunged across the board, and international oil prices surged sharply.
5月 15, 21:20New Federal Reserve Chair's first day usually starts with a decline
5月 15, 13:34U.S. Treasury yields soar across the board, impacting BTC
5月 15, 06:35Stock, bond, and currency markets in Japan and South Korea all decline.

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