[CICC: The Next Fed Rate Cut May Be Delayed Until the Fourth Quarter] Jin10 Data reported on April 30 that a research report from CICC stated the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged during its April meeting, in line with market expectations. However, four officials voted against the decision, with three opposing the inclusion of dovish language, indicating that the stance on monetary policy is becoming more cautious. The inflation environment has grown more complex due to the combination of high oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict and the earlier tariff effects. Supply shocks have shifted from being sporadic events to a new normal, which means the room for policy easing is constrained, and the threshold for rate cuts has been raised. This meeting also marked Jerome Powell's last rate-setting meeting as Fed Chair. Although his successor, Philip N. Waller, has signaled "balance sheet reduction and rate cuts," the collective decision-making mechanism of the committee may limit the ability to push for rate cuts in the short term. We believe the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year is low, but the path to rate cuts will be more prolonged, with the next rate cut possibly delayed until the fourth quarter.