90% of traders drown and die from 'carving boats and seeking swords' The biggest misconception in the cryptocurrency industry: using micro noise to apply macro cycles. Many people study cycles and review history, seemingly delving deeply, but actually digging their own graves. Essentially, it is difficult to distinguish between rigid laws and random fluctuations. What can be replicated is the underground avenue The reason why the Yi Jing, Kangbo, and dynastic cycles are effective for thousands of years is that they only focus on two things: 1. Energy causality: The depletion of old power and the replacement of new order are irreversible objective laws 2. Human cycle: Greed, fear, fanaticism, blind obedience, unchanged for thousands of years The halving mechanism of BTC is the "Heavenly Calendar" of the cryptocurrency market, and it is the top macro anchor point. The three rigid laws that must be firmly adhered to ✅ Cycle solar terms: halving supply-demand mismatch, which is the underlying logic of bull bear rotation ✅ Emotional extremes: extreme panic and fanaticism, are unchanging biological instincts ✅ Consensus on chips: The dense trading range is the true psychological bottom line of the market The Three Traps of Absolutely Not Being Obsessed ❌ Striving for historical prices: Each round of funding, mechanism, and volume is completely different ❌ Fixed time checkpoints: liquidity and policies will adjust the cycle rhythm ❌ Superstition towards outdated indicators: environmental iteration, outdated models will only mislead judgments Top level cognition: from "carving boats" to "watching water" Ordinary people stare at fixed numbers, points, and times Experts observe the logic, momentum, and cycle of flow History does not repeat details, but it always repeats logic. When the market trend deviates from history, anger is the obsession of retail investors, while curiosity is the iteration of strong players. Observing the water with ease, rather than rigidly carving boats, is the top-level practice of trading. Crypto BTC ETH Bitcoin cryptocurrency