Bitcoin is closer to its 'buy zone' than it's been in three years

The gap between bitcoin's spot price and realized price is compressing toward levels that historically marked cycle bottoms, but the on-chain data shows the capitulation that typically precedes those bottoms hasn't happened. What to know : Bitcoin still trades about 21 percent above its realized price, indicating most holders remain in profit and that on-chain data do not yet signal a classic long-term accumulation zone. The gap between spot and realized price has compressed rapidly from roughly a 120 percent premium in late 2024 to 21 percent now, suggesting a fast-moving compression phase rather than a completed market reset. On-chain indicators show no capitulation event or broad institutional surge in demand, implying that a deeper drawdown toward the realized price near $54,000 may be needed to mirror past cycle bottoms.