If it's a coincidence, it's purely accidental! Looking at the structure, it does seem quite similar. Breaking it down into nodes, there are similarities too, but it can't be interpreted exactly like that. Macro reflection on the fake breakout followed by a drop: The rebound to 600K was as expected by the market, but it didn’t fully reach the ideal rebound level. Looking back again, realizing that reaching 74K was already beyond expectations. Against the backdrop of war and a downward trend, If it weren’t for the temporary positive push from the U.S. government, it might not have rebounded to 74K at all. The current drop below 68K is also normal, and even if it drops further, it’s understandable. Why? As mentioned earlier, breaking down the nodes, the similarity to the current structure is June 2022. Back then, it was the peak of U.S. inflation, but the price still plunged downward before moving sideways to form a bottom. Although last night’s non-farm payroll data wasn’t enough to drive inflation again, The ongoing Iran war will definitely raise short-term inflation risks. This kind of risk, in a downward trend, will easily accelerate the drop. So for the current market, with U.S. stock indices staying at high levels and the crypto market entering a bear phase early, If the Iran conflict continues without resolution, It’s still important to remain cautiously optimistic! More extended thoughts will be shared next time!