Haotian | CryptoInsight
Haotian | CryptoInsight|3月 02, 2026 13:53
Recently, there have been rumors of @ opionlabsxyz's upcoming TGE. In fact, everyone is well aware that before the main narrative of the prediction market led by @ Polymarket roars and forms a main upward trend, there will definitely be a narrative "battle" related to the prediction market. The key is, after Polymarket has taken Mindshare to the extreme through "political games", how should newcomers get a share of this pie? Today, I would like to share a few observations about Opinion: 1) Opinion has accumulated sufficient market volume, not only earning $20 million from Hack VC and Jump in Pre-A, but also meeting the expectations of being a market leader in the BSC ecosystem. It has also been able to generate over $10 billion in trading volume within just 60 days after its public beta. The growth rate of this development is actually a result of large capital voting on the side, and also reflects the market's expectation of its early entry into the prediction market; 2) The success of Polymarket is backed by event driven bearish factors such as the US presidential election, the candidate for Federal Reserve chairman, and whether the Iran War has begun. Opinion must take a different approach. It chose to build a set of "predictive primitives" that focus not on the outcome of binary options, but on real-time pricing of "probability fluctuations" throughout the entire process before expected landing. For example, Opinion's focus on Pre token Generation Events, when many projects were still information black boxes, directly transformed them into on chain assets that could be used for gaming, achieving expected pricing and constituting a soft landing before the landing of primary market projects. The ability to turn "empty expectations" into "real liquidity" is the key to Opinion's positioning in the eyes of native crypto players. It is similar to many previous projects that attempted to change the pricing direction of the Bounding Curve coin issuance form, but Opinion's approach will be more direct; 3) In the past, opening a forecast position required manual review and setting of settlement conditions. Opinion has achieved "instant opening" through AI oracle. Its significance lies in making the expectation of assetization sufficiently automated. This means that it can not only carry macro narratives, but also delve into micro domains. For example, the TVL volatility of a DeFi protocol or the expected floor price of an NFT series can instantly become a tradable market. This high-frequency and extremely low friction cost allows it to cover a large number of cryptocurrency native topics and macro indicators with 24/7 volatility that Polymarket cannot consider. 4) The data shows that the average trading size of Opinion is over $2500, which is clearly not just a small bet for individual investors, but also a trading demand for institutions to use its high liquidity to hedge risks in the prediction market. There must be a lot of hype around brushing OPN points, but aside from brushing, if a platform's user profile includes institutions and arbitrageurs to a large extent, it actually indirectly verifies the "carrying capacity" of its underlying infrastructure. The goal of the future prediction market 2.0 is to enable large funds to conduct precise hedging in the prediction market like derivatives, rather than just gambling at the retail level. To achieve this, the response speed, liquidity depth, settlement logic, and other aspects of the AI oracle will be tested; The above. It is correct to predict that the market will ultimately be ignited by Polymarket and introduce a large number of off exchange incremental users, but Opinion's approach is to define a "protocol layer" logic for a global probabilistic financial infrastructure, which is very Crypto Native and will be more friendly to the crypto native market in the short term. But it also means that its true value and potential depend on the performance after TGE, NFA, Observe its changes calmly.
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