Long time no sharing [Multi layer Game] This is the microscope that caught a glimpse of the banker's micro manipulation in the dark forest 、 It is also an important ideological foundation for transitioning from "retail thinking" to "institutional thinking" Today's case can be explained in about 5 minutes. Let's start: Two days ago, there was a conspiracy theory that Jane Street would hit the market every morning at 10am Eastern Time. Almost every trading day, Bitcoin would mysteriously plummet by 2-3% before and after that time, accurately clearing leverage long positions, and then pulling back a few hours later. first ⃣ Layered game theory (leek thinking): Jane Street turned out to be the culprit. Now that we've uncovered her, life is getting better. Just wait for the cow to come second ⃣ Layered game theory (retail thinking): Let's take a look first, maybe it's fake news third ⃣ Layer Game (One Layer Trader Thinking): The peak of BTC volatility is concentrated around the release of macro data in the United States and before and after the opening of the US stock market (09:31-09:37), which is the result of the close linkage between the market microstructure and the US stock market, rather than targeted manipulation at a specific point in time. fourth ⃣ Layered game theory (asset management thinking): If you really want to smash the inventory, why do you have to choose a time point, not 8 o'clock, 9 o'clock, 11 o'clock, or split the large order into small orders for shipment What if on the day of the smash, there happens to be a buying opportunity? What if I can't smash it down? fifth ⃣ Layered game theory (investment bank perspective): Before and after the opening of the US stock market, market makers and institutional trading platforms (OTC/prime brokers) in the US trading time zone were fully launched, and trading volume increased. A large number of financial institutions' programs began to run. At the moment of opening, cross market signals (stock index, US dollar, interest rate, VIX, individual stocks) are updated intensively, and the quotation model synchronously changes prices, which is prone to "price jumping/scanning". sixth ⃣ Layer game (global derivative perspective): In the eyes of retail investors, they only know about "spot goods", and it is often a combination of multiple factors that determine the price of a variety. Many US institutions' compliance channels and margin systems lean more towards CME. When macro/risk signals are updated near the opening of the US stock market, institutions are more likely to move CME BTC futures first. Futures price changes → basis changes → arbitrageurs hedge on spot/perpetual prices → "transfer" volatility to mainstream Bitcoin exchange spot prices. Large option positions can result in significant gamma exposure near certain price ranges. When the price fluctuates around the key strike price, market makers will do delta hedging to maintain neutrality: Being forced to chase after a decline depends on the direction of net gamma, making it easier to accelerate the decline during liquidity switching periods seventh ⃣ Layer game (banker's thinking): Although individual investors do not possess professional financial knowledge or understand the pricing conditions of Bitcoin, Jane Street, this "imaginary enemy", can bring a fierce upward trend in the vicinity of this survey. At the same time, in conjunction with this so-called ultra short term 'good news', a very small portion of funds can be used to make a quick profit. The first survey last time had a good effect, and now we need to conduct a narrow range oscillation.