In this bear market, BTC's maximum retracement from its high point has approached 50%. But unlike previous cycles, so far we have not seen the outbreak of systemic risk events like the one in the previous cycle - such as stablecoin unanchoring, top institution thunderstorms, exchange closures, and other black swan events, which have not yet truly occurred. Since there is no clear 'fatal shock', why are there still so many old OGs who have gone through multiple cycles choosing to clear their positions and leave at this stage? From the recent discussion atmosphere, there are two concerns that are gradually eroding the confidence of long-term holders: 1. Fear of potential threats to quantum computing. Although quantum attacks are still at the theoretical risk stage, they point to the most fundamental cryptographic foundation of BTC. Once this underlying security assumption is shaken, its impact will far exceed the price level. 2. The increasing involvement of institutional funds, ETF channels, and market making giants has strengthened the connection between BTC and US dollar liquidity. Some early participants began to question whether BTC is gradually losing its initial independence against the fiat currency system. As Justin Bechler pointed out, traditional financial institutions like Jane Street, with their advantages in information, funds, and channels, easily obtain huge profits through human manipulation. He referred to this phenomenon as a "parasite" of traditional finance contaminating Bitcoin. Although it is still in the stage of "accusation+intense denial", we have not seen the final verdict or conclusive evidence. But judging from the community's response, people are extremely sensitive and distrustful of the intervention of traditional financial giants. Behind it, what is truly worth paying attention to is the psychological chain reaction it brings. The beliefs of long-term holders will gradually waver through the accumulation of doubts, controversies, and uncertainties. When the underlying consensus begins to loosen, it is inevitable that a large number of old coins will be distributed. But looking back at the development process of the past decade, this' crisis of faith 'almost always occurs at the bottom of every cycle. From exchange closures, regulatory lockdowns, to industry credit collapses, BTC has experienced countless moments of 'death'. However, the market always completes the bottom reconstruction at the stage where beliefs are most shaken. Every time, when emotions reach freezing point and chips are redistributed, a new upward cycle quietly begins.