Trump weighs limited military strikes against Iran, with probability rising to 60% by the end of March

On February 20th, according to the Wall Street Journal, insiders revealed that US President Trump is weighing a preliminary, limited military strike against Iran to force Iran to agree to a nuclear deal. If the plan is authorized, it may be implemented within a few days, targeting a few military or government facilities. If Iran refuses to terminate its uranium enrichment activities, the United States may launch a large-scale strike on its regime facilities. US officials have stated that recent discussions have focused more on larger scale strikes, but Trump has not yet decided whether to order them. Some officials have warned that such attacks could provoke retaliation from Iran or trigger a broader Middle East war. Iran has sent a letter to the United Nations stating that if attacked, it will consider all bases and assets of hostile forces in the region as legitimate targets. According to Polymarket data, the probability of the United States striking Iran before the end of March has risen to 60%.