China's treasury bond is under increasing pressure to repay its principal and interest. When will it collapse? By the end of 2025, China's total social debt has reached approximately RMB 526.8 trillion. Converted to each person, it is approximately 375000 yuan. Let's first look at the gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure. In 2025, the national general public budget revenue is expected to be 2.16045 trillion yuan, with expenditures of 2.87395 trillion yuan. So the deficit back then was: 287395-216045=713.5 billion The proportion of this deficit to income: 71350 ÷ 216045 ≈ 33% (i.e. 1/3 of income) Meanwhile, it also accounts for 5% of the expected GDP (140 trillion yuan) by 2025. The gap of RMB 7.14 trillion will basically be made up by issuing treasury bond. Then look at the stock and interest pressure of treasury bond. According to the data on the official website of the Central Bank, the balance of treasury bond is expected to reach 95.44 trillion by the end of 2025. If the average interest rate is 3.5%, the interest expenditure of treasury bond in that year is: 95.44 trillion x 3.5%=3.34 trillion The proportion of this interest scale to fiscal revenue: 3.34 trillion ÷ 21.6 trillion ≈ 15.5% That is to say, for every 6 yuan of fiscal revenue, nearly 1 yuan needs to be used for interest payment. More importantly, it accounted for the proportion of the newly added deficit (7.14 trillion yuan) that year: 3.34 trillion ÷ 7.14 trillion ≈ 46.8% In other words, nearly half of the money borrowed back then was actually consumed by interest. Finally, let's take a look at the dynamic flow of debt. At the end of 2024, the balance of treasury bond is 81.58 trillion, and is expected to increase to 95.44 trillion in 2025, with a net increase of: 95.44-81.58=13.86 trillion However, the total issuance of treasury bond in 2025 is 26.3 trillion yuan. The flow of this needs to be split: ·Used to repay the due principal (borrowing new to repay old): 26.3-13.86=12.44 trillion ·Used to pay current year's interest: 3.44 trillion yuan ·After deducting principal and interest, the actual portion that can be used for additional expenses is: 26.3-12.44-3.44=10.42 trillion It can be seen that a considerable part of the huge amount of treasury bond issued every year is "renewing" the existing debt. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the broader concept of debt. At present, China's private debt (households+enterprises) other than treasury bond is about 370 trillion yuan. With the addition of treasury bond, the scale of full-size debt is close to 470 trillion yuan. This does not include some implicit debts that have not been included in official statistics. So, whether it is from the erosion of interest on the finance or the scale of borrowing new to repay old, the current debt pressure cannot be ignored. So, whether it's a crash or a boom, at least one thing can be confirmed: fiat currency is accelerating its depreciation, and the simplest and most effective way for ordinary people is to invest in gold and BTC.