This teacher's viewpoint is worth studying and learning, as it evaluates risk pricing from another perspective, which is very helpful for grasping the BTC cycle. To summarize and organize: This X post (main post and reference post) was written by a fund partner and professor (CFA background), focusing on the downward trend of Bitcoin (BTC) price and its correlation with macro risks. Based on macroeconomic and financial market analysis, the author's logical framework emphasizes that BTC has evolved from a "narrative asset" to a mature "risk asset", and its price fluctuation is highly synchronized with the adjusted spread of OAS (Option Adjusted Spread). The overall logic is rigorous and progressive, from the introduction of indicators to risk interpretation, and then to investment advice, reflecting the buyer's thinking (Facts cheap, Interpretation expert). Below is a breakdown of its logical structure: 1. Introduction of Issues and Proposal of Indicators: -The author starts with "When will BTC fall in this wave" and cites an old post from November last year (November 2025) as the basis. The old post pointed out that BTC prices are inversely correlated with credit spreads: large spreads (market panic) → BTC slump; Small spread (market greed) → BTC surges. -Logical basis: BTC, as a high beta asset (volatility amplifier), is sensitive to liquidity tightening and reacts earlier than other assets (such as canaries in coal mines). The current interest rate spread is extremely low (2.77%), indicating high market sentiment and insufficient risk compensation, indicating an ongoing decline. 2. Market sentiment and risk pricing analysis: -Core indicator: Credit Spread (OAS). The historical average is 4-5%, with extreme recessions (such as in 2008) reaching over 8% (actual peaks can exceed 20%, such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis reaching 21.47%). The current 2.77% is far below the average, indicating that investors receive "extremely meager" compensation for taking risks, and the market is in a "perfectly priced soft landing" (i.e. expecting a mild economic slowdown without recession). -Logical deduction: Under the combination of high-level assets and crowded trading, the market has low sensitivity to negative news and limited margin for error. Any macroeconomic disturbance (such as inflation, employment, fiscal issues) will amplify, leading to widening interest spreads and triggering asset revaluation (price drops). At this point, 'buying against the trend' (buying at the bottom) is essentially a seller of long volatility, with poor odds (high downside risk, limited upside space). 3. * * Forward looking warning and scenario simulation * *: -The author rehearses the scenario of the new Fed chairman's credit cycle contraction: BTC reflects liquidity tightening in advance. If OAS starts to soar and enters a 'crisis mode', BTC may first experience deeper liquidity depletion (further decline), and then bottom out in the expectation of a large water release (Fed turning dovish, loose policies). -Expanding to stocks: 2026 is the 'audit year', emphasizing cash flow and AI demand realization, with high risk for story stocks (implying a pullback in technology stocks affecting BTC). 4. * * Investment advice and monitoring indicators * *: -Don't rush to buy at the bottom, wait for the spread to truly rise (risk pricing is sufficient) before making a move. -Simultaneously monitoring: 10-year US Treasury yield (reflecting interest rate expectations), US dollar index (with a strong US dollar exacerbating tightening). -Overall logical loop: from verifying the effectiveness of indicators with historical data, to current applications, and to future games, emphasizing the concept of "odds" (risk/return ratio). Logical advantage: data-driven (with the attached image showing the correlation between BTC and inverted spreads), combining historical and current factors to avoid subjective emotions. Potential weaknesses: Assuming that interest rate spreads are the dominant factor, BTC specific variables such as regulation, halving cycles, and institutional adoption may be overlooked; Short term forecasting is accurate, but long-term macro uncertainty is high. How to determine risk pricing According to the post, the core of risk pricing is to evaluate the market's compensation level for risk through credit spread (OAS): -Low OAS (<3%): Risk is underestimated, investors are greedy, and compensation is insufficient. Historical lows (such as the current 2.77%) indicate high market sentiment and susceptibility to disturbances, leading to asset revaluation. -Average OAS (4-5%): Normal level, reasonable risk pricing. -High OAS (>8%): Risk overvalued, market panic, generous compensation. Extreme events such as the peak of 21.47% in 2008 or the peak of 10.87% in 2020 are often buying opportunities. -* * Judgment method * *: Compare historical data (available in the FRED database). If OAS approaches historical lows and the market consensus is for a "perfect soft landing," then risk pricing is insufficient and odds are poor. On the contrary, when OAS widens, risk pricing is sufficient and suitable for reverse operations. -Actual application: The current (January 29, 2026) OAS is 2.77%, still at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see rather than increase. What are the impacts on BTC price The post positions BTC as a risky asset, whose price is influenced by macro liquidity and sentiment (non intrinsic value, such as cash flow from stocks). Main influencing factors: -* * Credit Spread (OAS) * *: Reverse correlation. Narrowing interest rate spread → Abundant liquidity, BTC rises; Spread widens → tightens, BTC falls first. The post emphasizes that BTC and interest rate differentials are dancing in sync. -Macro environmental disturbances: unstable inflation (high inflation delaying interest rate cuts), strong employment (Fed tightening expectations), fiscal issues (closures, deficits). Any deviation amplifies the risk event. -Liquidity and Monetary Policy: The Fed's pace of interest rate cuts and tight funding situation. In the rehearsal for the contraction of the new Fed presidential cycle, the high beta characteristics of BTC amplify the impact. -Market sentiment and crowded trading: After institutionalization, BTC was affected by the pullback of technology stocks and the collapse of leveraged trading (such as semiconductors/precious metals). The strong US dollar and the policies of the Bank of Japan also have an indirect impact. -Other factors (implied in the post): Geopolitics, regulation (such as the US fiscal shutdown), and on chain sentiment (although the author believes it is no longer dominant). The historical chart shows a high correlation between BTC and inverted spreads.