Short term holder costs approaching downward and strong support for regional data updates Continuing the quote below, today I will update you on the 'STH-RP Model with Deviation Adjustment'. Based on the content of the technical analysis post (https://((((((((x.com)))))/market_gegar/status/2015601869922631908), The three scripts mentioned in the article actually correspond to the STH-RP model with deviation adjustment; In this article, I will use this model to reinterpret possible future scripts ： The indicator in the attached figure is "STH-RP with Deviation Adjustment". Here, let me help you review its principle: ➡️ Calculate the mean and standard deviation of STH-MVRV since 2018 ➡️ Multiply STH-RP by the mean ± n standard deviations of STH-MVRV ➡️ The reason for using data after 2018 as the calculation benchmark is that, The reason is that STH-MVRV after 2018 exhibits significant mean regression characteristics. Red line=STH-RP multiplied by the mean of STH-MVRV plus 1 standard deviation Yellow line=STH-RP Green line=STH-RP multiplied by "Mean of STH-MVRV -1 standard deviation" Blue line=STH-RP multiplied by 'Mean of STH-MVRV -1.5 standard deviations' Detailed concept explanation of the model: https://(((((x.com)))/market_gegar/status/1902195178993279264 // As shown in the attached figure, currently: Yellow line (STH-RP)=96344 Green line=80235 Blue line=70771 Compared to the last update (citation below), in the past three weeks, The values of the three lines all showed a downward shift of approximately 2000 points. Let's talk about STH-RP first. I have mentioned it several times before: If the oscillation time is long enough, STH-RP will stay in price for a long time, Causing its continuous decline (due to short-term holders buying in this region); STH-RP can also be seen as a certain degree of "bull bear boundary line", Therefore, once the price remains flat for too long, STH-RP will eventually approach its current price, At that time, it will be a crucial window for the battle between long and short positions By the way, during the last update (https://((((((((((x.com))))))/market_gegar/status/2011615527412908215)), Although the price was already very close to STH-RP, it was not directly blocked from falling in the end, But we can also see from this that the market in the short term does not have a strong enough increase in funds, Causing prices to be quickly blocked and suppressed near STH-RP Of course, if we want to explain it from a technical perspective, we can also: The liquidity attraction below is still in effect, making it difficult for prices to rise smoothly. // Furthermore, we can see that the current blue and green line values are approximately 80K and 70K, respectively. Continuing the technical analysis post I posted two days ago (the link attached at the beginning of this article), In the article, I once again emphasized to everyone my interpretation of the three future trends: one ️⃣ Complete Stop Hunt at 80.5K two ️⃣ Complete Stop Hunt at 74K three ️⃣ Both of the above positions did not show a Stop Hunt, and a deeper callback was taken Based on the current model values, the support of the green and blue lines corresponds to scenarios 1 and 2, respectively Price once again supported on the green line: in conjunction with Stop Hunt at 80.5K Price supported by blue line, coupled with 74K Stop Hunt To avoid any misunderstandings, it is necessary to clarify a concept here ： The 'support' in on chain analysis can be breached; But if the support is effective, Usually, there will be a halt in the decline in the region and a rebound above support in the short to medium term, When the market plummeted on November 21 last year, the triple resonance support of the Shallow Bear script was like this, At that time, I also happened to share my own bottom fishing plan in advance on 11/20 ： https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1991320675865489815 Finally, one more thing to say ： Since the bear market bottom at the beginning of 2023, BTC has not touched the blue line even once, Do you think that 'returning to the Blue Line' is an unattainable dream or an inevitable fate The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone // Related reading resources The beginning of a new cycle? The proportion of smart money fundraising that steadily increases but slows down in growth rate https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2015964568250724464 The latest data update of AVIV Hetmap: Asahi's model still keeps resonance https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2014515275195154834 Latest BTC Deep Bear Extreme Valuation Data https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2013067199641247974 Soul questioning: Is this the middle stage of the bear market's decline https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2011978392116347339