The world is moving away from the 'peaceful version': when rules fail, all assets will have to be priced again After scrolling through the news today, I realized one thing: We may have really walked out of the 'peaceful version' of the world. Not a 'local conflict', It's not about 'rising geopolitical risks', Not the kind of numbing vocabulary that financial media loves to use the most. But rather something more primitive, rougher, and more unsettling—— The rules are no longer important. 1、 The scariest thing is not war, it's' not playing anymore ' Have you noticed a detail? In the past, great powers had to find a reason for their actions: counter-terrorism peacekeeping humanitarianism International authorization The Security Council discusses No matter if it's true or false, at least perform. And what has happened recently gives me the feeling that: Reasons can exist or not Capturing people, threats, military options, resource control, waterways, energy—— One sentence is enough. When the strongest player in a system starts publicly telling you: I don't necessarily need your consent to do things, What does that mean? This means that this system, It has already entered the next version by default. 2、 These are not 'signals', they are the reality that has already happened If you think this is an emotion, then present the recent news as it is: US cross-border military operation to directly take Maduro away in Venezuela ——It's not an escalation of sanctions, it's a cross-border arrest of people Trump publicly stated that he does not rule out the possibility of "acquiring" Greenland through military means The United States sends a signal to establish absolute control over the entire Western Hemisphere Cuba, Colombia, Brazil and other Latin American countries are being reclassified as "unstable objects" China directly asks at the United Nations: Why can the United States invade other countries without restraint? ——And the United Nations has hardly provided any substantive response China announces ban on exporting hundreds of dual-use military and civilian materials and key technologies to Japan Anglo French Joint Air Strike on Syria Russia is still fighting in Ukraine Iran, Cuba, Greenland continue to appear on the US' potential action list ' Take a look at these news pieces separately, Each one has an explanation. But when viewed together, there is only one conclusion: The world is not locally tense, but simultaneously out of control. 3、 The United Nations is not malfunctioning, it is' authority revoked ' Many people are still subconsciously asking: Will it be condemned? Will there be sanctions? Will there be a game in the Security Council? But reality is already cruel: When the P5 are all at war themselves, the United Nations is left with only symbolic significance. Rules are something that, It only has binding force when the power is close. Once the power gap is widened, The rules will be broken first. That's also why you see it—— The recent actions of major powers are becoming increasingly indifferent: legitimacy precedent demonstration effect The summary in one sentence is: Let's do it first. 4、 The world is returning to a state where 'history is familiar, but we are unfamiliar' This is not a Cold War. The Cold War was a 'borderless confrontation'. What does it look more like now? More like the world before World War I and World War II: Resources are king, Camp hardening, Conflicts do not require a complete reason. You must remember a few keywords: Resource control Energy and Navigation critical minerals Industrial Chain Security Financial and Clearing System In the next year or two, the conflicts you will see are likely to be: partial high frequency sustain Difficult to completely end For the market, It is the most difficult environment to price. 5、 When finance itself becomes a weapon, the logic of assets must be rewritten Over the past few decades, all assets have been built on a set of default assumptions: Money can be freely transferred The market always has liquidity The banking system is neutral Sanctions are an 'exceptional event' And now you must accept a reality: The financial system itself has been fully weaponized. When you realize this, you will understand: The problem with many assets is not valuation, But rather—— Can you still use it in extreme situations. 6、 Gold and encryption are being pulled onto the same mainline gold Gold solves an ultimate problem: When the credit system is shaken, what do you believe in? It is not connected to the internet, No permission is required, Not dependent on any system. This is something that has been repeatedly verified for thousands of years. Encryption&Bitcoin And what truly undergoes a qualitative change is encryption. My judgment is very clear and radical: Encryption, especially Bitcoin, We are transitioning from 'high volatility risk assets', Shift towards options for decentralized financial infrastructure. Why? The world is becoming increasingly divided More frequent sanctions, capital controls, and liquidation blockades The more genuine the demand for 'no license required, cross-border, non freezing' This is not a narrative, This is a functional requirement. In the long run, as long as the global finances continue to rely on printing money to survive, the price center of encryption is almost only likely to continue to rise. But you must also see through its cruelest reality: Every time there is panic, encryption will be the first to get shot. Not because it's fragile, But because: Too good liquidity 24-hour trading There is no circuit breaker No central bank backing When everyone needs to 'immediately monetize', It always ranks first. This is not a disadvantage, This is the price of its' too easy to use '. 7、 That's also why this year's structure is quietly improving Some details are easy to miss if you don't keep an eye on them every day: Last night, MSCI postponed the removal of MSTR from the index ——The biggest structural bearish trend in January disappeared directly The previously feared 'January bearish window' in the market has been largely debunked Looking ahead to this year, the only truly systemic bearish trend is Japan's interest rate hike And Japan's interest rate hike is essentially a liquidity rhythm issue, not a credit issue In this context: As long as there is no new global liquidity withdrawal, the long-term logic of encryption has not been disrupted. On the contrary, In a more fragmented, confrontational, and financially weaponized world, The reason for the existence of encryption is becoming increasingly hard. 8、 Conclusion This world is transitioning from The Rule First Financial World slide towards The real world where power comes first. And in this world: Gold, responsible for ultimate credit Encryption, responsible for bypassing the system's path They are not opposing relationships, but two ends of the same logic. What is truly dangerous, It's not that you're heading in the wrong direction, But you're still using the old world's safety assumptions, To understand a new world that has already begun to change its underlying logic.