Changes in Bitcoin Chain Data in the First Week of 2026- Has Bitcoin's Bull Market Arrived? The conclusion should be placed at the forefront. Based on the data, I don't think it's a bull market now. Even if prices have risen, I still haven't seen any fundamental changes, just like I disagree with BTC's previous bear market. Personally, I think it's still in the accumulation period. The stock of the exchange has always been the most important concern because it represents the actual investor sentiment. If investors panic or lose confidence in the future, there will be signs of selling, and the stock of the exchange will increase. On the contrary, if the stock of the exchange is constantly decreasing, it can at least prove that the number of investors who want to hold BTC is greater than those who want to sell BTC. The stock of BTC on the exchange in the past year Although this does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will experience a pullback, it will gradually form a situation of "reluctance to sell". As the amount of BTC on the exchange decreases, even if it may not necessarily lead to BTC pullback, it can at least slow down the speed of price decline. This is why I have never believed that a bear market for BTC has arrived. After all, from the data, it is clear that even if the price falls, investors not only do not increase selling, but also sell out. In the past week, it has also been evident that even though BTC has remained at $88000 for a long time, the stock on the exchange is still decreasing. In the past two days, when BTC prices have risen, the stock is still decreasing, indicating that most investors have always maintained an optimistic attitude. Of course, I can think of many friends asking why there is such a clear transfer out, but the price still rises slowly, and even falls, which is normal. From the detailed data of BTC transferred to the exchange, the blue line is basically a low transfer volume, indicating that investors have low selling sentiment. The red line represents a higher transfer volume, indicating that investors have a higher selling sentiment. BTC data transferred to the exchange in the past year Especially in recent months, it has been evident that most of the time has been during periods of high transfer volume. Although the corresponding exchange stock is still declining, it is still inevitable that many investors will sell due to various reasons. Therefore, even if the buying or transferring volume is higher, there is no way to sell on transfers. For the price impact of BTC, the transfer in is not the main reason restricting the price, because the transfer in does not necessarily mean selling, sometimes it is also waiting for a better price, and it also needs to be matched with whether there is liquidity or political, emotional positive news. From the data of BTC net traffic, it can be seen that during the peak period of price increase from April to June this year, the outflow was significantly higher than the inflow. Even when the price reached a new high in October, it was due to a significant increase in net inflow, and both times were driven by events. April was due to the reduction of tariffs, and October was due to the repair of relations with China. Net traffic of BTC on the exchange in the past year From the current perspective, although the inflow is increasing, net outflows are still the main factor. However, insufficient liquidity has led to the net outflow not yet being amplified, so the price changes are not very obvious. Using the sentiment of April and October as an example, the current Venezuela incident is not enough to have a short-term impact on the US economy or inflation. BTC's position on the exchange in the past year and a half This is not a casual statement. From the position data of the exchange, which is the average stock over 30 days, it can be seen that although there is a trend of the fifth significant outflow now, the outflow duration is still in the early stage compared to the first four times, and the outflow volume is not dominant. There was no significant emotional or political stimulation in the settings. But it can still be seen from the previous trend that if investors can still maintain a focus on outflows and maintain strong net outflows, at least it cannot be considered a bear market for BTC. However, I do not believe that it is now a bull market, as liquidity, trading volume, and even withdrawal volume have not experienced explosive increases. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits